The Box Office recovery has become an elusive thing. Although we’ve seen solid and steady progress over the last few post-pandemic years, the current Box Office has yet to touch that final benchmark- a return to pre-pandemic averages. While many were predicting 2024, or even 2025, as the first realistic point for a true recovery, the many (positive) surprises of the 2023 slate could lead to a Summer win- if the right target can be matched. Today Brandon Blake, entertainment attorney from Blake & Wang P.A, looks at what a $4B Summer Box Office could mean for this year- and if we have the potential to see it happen.
Already Underway
The Summer 2023 Box Office kicked off with Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3, which opened on May 5th to a solid start. It should also be the very first post-pandemic period where we see a normal release pattern. So as crunch times go, we’re in one.
April saw a succession of unexpected Box Office hits, especially the unexpected mega-performance of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also see the first clear Summer pipeline of the post-pandemic era, with 42 wide releases. Not only a great improvement on 2022’s 22, but also beating 2019’s 32. With 2022’s Summer Box Office having met $3.4B (before a Fall slump), this makes a $4B target for this year reasonably attainable.
An Industry Coming Back to Life
For the year-to-date, the Box Office is already sitting at $3B, 29% higher than the same time last year, but still lagging on 2019 figures by around 24%. It’s also past this mark a full month ahead of the 2022 Box Office, and mostly off the back of films that weren’t expected to resonate so highly with audiences- meaning those that should perform well can still contribute greatly to that key bottom line.
On paper, we have one of the strongest Summer movie lineups we’ve seen in a long while. Think of plenty of crowd-pleasers with solid potential to hold week-on-week. And a little of something for everyone. From Pixar’s Elemental and Disney’s The Little Mermaid right through to yet more franchises (Fast & Furious, Mission: Impossible and Indiana Jones) and more serious fare, like Universal’s Oppenheimer, there’s something to appeal to all demographics.
In what some may see as a rather presumptuous move, we’ve recently seen studio executives urge theater owners to curb their advertising and trailers, in order to ensure a ‘good experience’ for returning moviegoers and better profits across the board. They have a point. While audiences are historically more amenable to trailers than other advertising options, data suggests a runtime under 14 minutes to hit the moviegoing sweet spot. In the boom era of ad-supported streaming, however, there’s certainly some humor to be found in the appeal.
The long, hard work of returning the theatrical industry to its former glory certainly isn’t over. And no matter what the Summer Box Office does, 2022 was an object lesson in the dangers of counting one’s chickens before they hatch. Despite a stellar Summer performance, lackluster slates and low audience appeal meant a sluggish Fall and Year-End Box Office, ultimately dragging down the stats. However, with more product, a stronger slate, and some amazing performances already in the bag, things are looking up for the 2023 Box Office in general- and that’s something to celebrate, for sure.
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