As we head into what could be the most unpredictable Upfronts week in several years, how hard a sell will the pitches be in a market where ad buyers are jittery and strike action is occupying the headlines? Our expert entertainment lawyer Los Angeles and industry insider, Blake & Wang P.A’s Brandon Blake, analyzes where we stand.
Tumultuous Environment
A year ago, we were talking seriously about a ‘return to normal’- but the new normal that emerged has been anything but. Many of the CEOs and top execs we saw presenting last year have departed their roles, with the key exception being Paramount- who have declined to present at Upfronts Week entirely. This upper-level disruption comes on the heels of a year characterized by mass layoffs across the board and a sharp economic downturn deeply impacting the ad buying market- not the best start to Upfronts week we could hope for.
Netflix, usually part of the NewFronts, will instead be stepping into the vacuum they have left, however. Or at least they should have been- last week we saw an abrupt announcement that they will be refraining from their planned in-person presentation and heading to a virtual event instead. While no real reason for the abrupt change of plan has been given, we have to assume it is due to the looming threat of strike action across the Upfronts, with the WGA East confirmed to be picketing most locations.
So those who are pitching live will likely have active picket lines outside their doors, something that will result in diminished ‘star power’ for the event, too. We could even see workers from Teamsters and IATSE- which includes many venue staff- choose to weigh in and stand in solidarity with the strikers. And the strike itself will leave some uncertainty over upcoming fall schedules, too.
Except for NBC, it seems. Last Friday we saw them reiterate that they expect their own Fall schedule, heavy in late-night comedies, sports offerings, and some series fare, will go ahead as planned. They have cited both an unscripted-heavy lineup and a year-round development schedule as a buffer against potential disruption- a nice ray of sunshine in a generally heavy climate. Fox has taken a more conservative pitch, unveiling a lineup of 18 returning series and 6 new, but with no confirmed release dates for them.
Lackluster Ad Market
All that disruption, on top of an already drooping ad market, is a tough time to try to sell in. Especially as advertisers seem more jittery than ever. Nearly every Q1 earnings report has shown a significant downturn in the advertising market. Yet sell the Upfronts must. And right now, a steady and confident hand is exactly what the ad business needs to soothe concerns.
It has been a year of media chaos, for sure, but for now, Upfronts week still seems to be getting down to the real business of selling ad space in a shrinking market best by turbulence and uncertainty with a smile. We expect to see a heavy emphasis on strike-proof assets like unscripted fare and live sports, which also offer an advertiser-friendly drawcard in an uncertain market. What will come of it? For that, we shall have to wait and see- but it will be an interesting ride, indeed.
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